Recurving Tropical Cyclones: Singular Vector Sensitivity and Downstream Impacts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Revisiting the maximum intensity of recurving tropical cyclones
Previous studies have indicated that recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones, initially westward moving tropical cyclones that turn toward the east, often reach their maximum intensity close to the time of recurvature. Those results have often been cited in the literature and sometimes inferred to be valid in other tropical cyclone basins. This study revisits this topic in the western...
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Global natural disaster losses have risen dramatically in recent decades and tropical cyclones have contributed significantly to this trend. Tropical cyclones account for nine of the ten most costly inflation-adjusted insurance natural disaster losses (2009 dollars) between 1970 and 2009 (Swiss Re, 2010). Of these nine, eight impacted the US and surrounding areas and one impacted Japan. In orig...
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Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm events occur randomly with constant rate in time. This study analyzes the statistical properties of A...
متن کاملSIXTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP on TROPICAL CYCLONES Topic 2.5 : Physical Processes and Downstream Impacts of Extratropical Transition Rapporteur:
The importance of the ET in influencing the dynamics of the atmosphere has become more evident in recent years. The occurrence of ET events over the North Pacific has been observed to coincide with periods of reduced forecast model skill (Jones et al. 2003). Harr et al. (2004) examined downstream propagation of increased ensemble standard deviation in mid-tropospheric heights from several opera...
متن کاملMoisture Transport into Midlatitudes ahead of Recurving Tropical Cyclones and Its Relevance in Two Predecessor Rain Events
Global ensemble forecasts from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) are used to quantify the magnitude of moisture transport into North America ahead of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). Two cases in which a predecessor rain event (PRE) occurred ahead of the recurving TC—Erin (2007) and Ike (2008)—are analyzed, with ens...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Monthly Weather Review
سال: 2009
ISSN: 1520-0493,0027-0644
DOI: 10.1175/2008mwr2652.1